Science and Reason: A historical journey in
science and its methods
Here is a story as recounted by Meghnad Saha, one of the
pioneers of modern astrophysics. The episode took place in his village in the
late 1930s. His father's friend met Saha and asked, “I hear that you have
become very famous for your science, may I know what it is all about?” Saha
described to him his work on thermal ionization equilibrium in stars and its
relation to stellar spectra. The gentleman listened and then said, “But that is
all given in the Vedas.” Taken aback, Saha further described the 20th
century revolutions in science related to atomic structure, relativity etc. The
gentleman persisted: “All these are given in the Vedas.” Saha narrated again
how knowledge had developed through a tortuous path -- the Copernican
revolution of 16th -17th century Europe, contributions by
Galileo, Kepler and Newton, etc. He also talked about the contributions of ancient
Indian mathematics. He explained how, important as these contributions were,
they could not have led to the revolution that we saw in the Copernican era.
But the gentleman remained adamant and persisted that all of modern science was
already available in the Vedas.
Saha wrote
that he then read the Vedas to check the contention that all the findings of
modern science was described in the Vedas. He, however, found no reference to
them in these ancient literary books.
Here is another story. Another great scientist, Satyendra Nath
Bose, narrates that after the World War I when the British built a jail in
Hijli (near the location of the present day IIT Kharagpur) it was found that
the site did not have a source of water. Engineers were sent to find
underground sources but failed. It was rumoured that a local ‘dowser
(traditional ‘water seeker’), using just a forked branch of a tree as a tool, walked
about in the jail compound and located a source. Bose argued however
that this story could not be true. He argued: “I know of Eötvös's balance and the accuracy with which it
can measure the value of “g”, i.e. acceleration due to gravity. From
this value of “g”, I know that the presence of oil, gas, various
minerals, around a place can be found. I can understand that, on the basis of the
laws of Physics. But I am also aware of the level of precision that such an
instrument would demand and hence have doubts about the claims of the dowser. He
further writes: “Later too, when I was a member of the Rajya Sabha, we
discussed the question of exploration of underground water in Rajasthan. At that
time, Delhi was agog with stories about a “Paniwallah Maharaj” who could do the
job by some mysterious tricks. This Paniwallah Maharaj's services were sought.
His explorations did not succeed and hence after such massive publicity.
These episodes, serve as practical issues for addressing the
question of science and reason. In the first case, on being told that
Copernican and Newtonian ideas of the solar system and modern ideas of stellar
spectroscopy were already present in the Vedas, Saha entertained doubts. But he
asserted that they were not there in the Vedas only after checking the text. In
the second case, Bose had doubts about the ability of the traditional dowser
because he was aware that laws of nature being universal, it would be
humanly impossible to find underground sources of water by a simple device like
the branch of a tree.
Methodology of science:
Science begins by questioning everything. Scientific methodology involves a level of
scepticism; it is a process that seeks to arrive at conclusions about natural
phenomenon by continuously raising doubts around observed events. There is a
method by which this scepticism is resolved. An important lesson can be learnt
if we look at a school level chemistry note book. The page is divided into
three columns, experiment, observation and inference. The meanings are obvious.
But the idea is to record (a) for one's own self as also (b) for the sake of
others so that the experiment can be repeated, observations checked and the
inference can be reasoned out, while entertaining the scepticism. These are
some of the basic steps in modern science. Science, while being sceptical,
accepts “universality” of scientific laws. Thus, in essence, science depends
on (1) evidence and facts (2) evidence and reasoning (3) everything claiming
scientific validity is put to question and test (4) anything that refuses to be
put to test cannot claim to be scientifically validated.
But these were not the accepted steps, five hundred years ago.
In that era, it was believed that knowledge could be obtained by the mental
process of reasoning out. In the present day practice of science, exclusive reliance
on mental processes are involved only in some stages of scientific work, but
not all. It is first done when planning the experiment, i.e. in deciding what
is to be done and in the last stage and then in the final step, inferences have
to be drawn from the observations. In between the mental process goes hand
in hand with doing and observing. Thus, science involves this interplay between
mental reasoning and real-life
experimentation.
These processes can be long and inferences may not be automatic,
at times inconclusive. In science imagination too plays a big role but it science
does not progress exclusively through imagination and has to subject itself to
verifiable or refutable experimental tests. This is illustrated with a few
historical examples, taken from the development of science during the Copernican
renaissance.
Science as a process
About our solar system, Kepler's ellipse, Copernican revolution
and Newton.
We are told of Kepler's three laws on planetary motion, in our
school text books. Kepler did not know about them, he found them . Our
books are written in a way as if these laws came, all at the same time. The
actual story is different. It took Kepler ten years to discover them and they
were found one by one. The story is as follows.
Kepler was born in 1571 and went to Prague in 1600 to become an
observational assistant to the famous astronomer Tycho Brahe. Tycho died the following year and Kepler tried hard
for nearly eight years to match Tycho's observations of planetary orbits to the
Copernican scheme of circular paths, with the sun as the centre. He did not
succeed but he persisted with the idea of circular orbits. That was because,
like most people Kepler too assigned a “divine” symmetric scheme to circles and
thus thought that heavenly bodies ought to follow circular paths. While the
orbits of Mercury, Venus, Earth, Jupiter and Saturn fitted with Copernicus's scheme,
Kepler could not fit such a circular path to the orbit of Mars. He could put four of Tycho's
Martian data points on a circle but two data points were seen to lie outside
it. Only a little outside: close to a circle but not quite. Knowing that Tycho
Brahe was fastidious with accuracy, Kepler could not ignore these two outlying
points as being Tycho's observational errors. He got a clue from an unexpected
observation. It is here that this combination of “doing and reasoning” leads us
to the goal.
The idea
of an elliptic orbit came to Kepler in 1604-1605, but he perfected it in
1609. The year 1609, proved to be a
momentous year in the history of science. In that year, Galileo Galilei, used a
telescope for the first time for astronomical observations. This is often
recorded with well justified fanfare. But one other momentous event goes
unnoticed. In the same year, from Tycho's data, Kepler found that, if one
considered elliptic orbits planets move slower when they are farther from the
sun and faster when they are closer. With this, not only could he fit the orbit
but another remarkable discovery was made by him. He found that if we join the
two points P1 and P2 in the orbit of a planet and measure the shaded area “Area
1” and the time “t” taken by the planet to travel from P1 to P2, then the Areal
Velocity (a/t) remains a constant for all parts of the orbit. This was a
momentous discovery, to be exploited by Newton later. To anticipate what Newton
would show later, these two laws proved gravitation's force to be attractive,
everywhere and always points towards the sun and for this reason “angular
momentum” is a conserved quantity, giving (a/t) to be a constant
everywhere in planetary orbits.
Criticisms and advance:
Scepticism is a part of science. Kepler's idea of elliptic
orbits was not accepted. It was ignored by Galileo and Descartes. But if
Tycho's observations were to be matched, in no way could the elliptic model be
abandoned. Even Kepler, the strong believer of “divine symmetry” had to give up
that notion. His own work compelled him to do so. But by this time
Kepler was also preoccupied with another idea, not thought about earlier. He
had found that if planets are farther from the sun, they take longer time to
revolve round the sun. Was there any relation between the time of revolution (T)
and the planet's average distance (L) from the sun? After ten years'
struggle, Kepler found the relation to be : T2 is proportional to L3. In this way, mathematics becomes the
language of natural science.
How important these laws were would be proved a few years later.
In the contemporary world of astrophysics, all satellites of planets are also
seen to follow Kepler's laws, including artificial satellites like the Mangalyaan.
With orbit calculations important astronomical events could now
be predicted. One such event to be predicted was the transit of Mercury across
the sun. It was first observed by Pierre Ghassendi on 7th November,
1631 in Paris. We have observed one such on 9th May 2016 and the
next one would occur on 11th November 2019 and on 13th
November 2032.
Another important event would be the
transit of Venus. In 1627, Kepler predicted that a transit of Venus would take
place in 1631 but Jeremy Horrocks and William Crabtree with their very accurate
calculations following Kepler's laws found that ANOTHER transit would occur on
4th December 1639 - an issue that Kepler had missed. They observed
this transit with telescopes. But they went a step further, they showed that
this event could be used to measure the earth-sun distance, which no one had
done before. They found the distance to be 99 million kilometers, a distance
that no one could ever conceive of! At the suggestions of Edmund Halley, the
Venus transits of 1761 and 1769 were observed from different parts on earth and
the corrected value for the earth-sun distance (called Astronomical Unit) was
found to be 150 million kilometers, which is very close to what we accept now.
This is now one of the length scales with which astronomers measure distances.
Culmination of the Copernican revolution
Copernicus' ideas about heliocentric solar system (where planets
move around the sun) appeared in 1543 and refuted the view till then of Ptolmey
and others that the earth was the ecentre of the universe (the geocentric
model). But the Copernican revolution took about 225 years to complete. This
culmination is said to happen with the publication of Newton's “Principia” in
1687 and the return of the Halley's comet the way Halley had predicted, on the
basis of Newton's laws. By studying the period and path of the 1531, 1607 and
1682 comets, Halley inferred that they were one and the same comet and would “
therefore, with some confidence predict its return in the year 1758. If this
prediction is fulfilled, there is no doubt that other comets will return.” And
it did.
This revolution laid down the basis of classical mechanics, i.e.
a whole host of mechanical motion, could be understood with only three laws. If
you take out any one of the laws, the structure becomes incomplete and there is
no fourth law.
Let us see what we can derive from them.
Any modern day text book of astronomy will tell us that the sun weighs 1.91×1030 kgs. The question is: how did we know that?
It is known from (a) Kepler's laws, based on Newton's mechanics and gravitation
(b) knowledge of earth-sun distance, (c) period of revolution of earth. All
these were known by Newton's time, but Newton still did not know the mass of
the sun because he did not know the value of one constant that Newton's gravitational
law needed. That was the value of the universal gravitational constant, “G”
(note the emphasis universal). Its value cannot be found from any
amount of thinking. It has to be found from real experiments. Newton had
declared the gravitational laws to be universal. So it could be found on earth
too and that value should apply everywhere. This experiment was done by
Cavendish in 1798. The value of “G” is very accurately known today.
These days, Cavendish's experiment is repeated by students in M.Sc. level. From
this value of ‘G’, we can determine the mass of the sun. That sets the
mass scale for many objects in our universe. Further, knowing this value of ‘G’
and the local value of ‘g’ , i.e. the acceleration due to gravity at any
point on earth, one can also predict about the existence of various minerals
and oil and natural gas resources in the area. This technique is routinely used
in geophysical explorations, which S.N. Bose had spoken about.
The Copernican revolution is said to have come to its completion
with Newton's discovery of the laws of motion and the laws of universal
gravitation. His most profound contribution was in bringing in the concept of universality
to science. Newtonian mechanics would find its validity in a whole host of situations,
for the next two hundred years. In the late nineteenth century, we would find
that it fails in certain cases. There were observed phenomenon that Newtonian
physics could not solve. It had to be replaced by the modern theory of
relativity and quantum mechanics. Newtonian science was replaced but NOT
rejected. Newtonian science could
explain observed phenomenon that we had knowledge about in his time. As new
phenomenons were observed which could not be explained by Newtonian science, a
new framework was developed with the 20th century revolution
in physics.
Nature of scientific knowledge:
The history that we narrated above shows that human knowledge is
in a process of evolution. Science begins with the premise that the “system”
exists and knowledge is tentative. Science itself sets the boundaries
within which it can claim to be correctly explain and predict natural events.
The boundaries expand, giving rise to a more complete understanding.
Science is thus not a revelation of permanent truth. The truth
is accepted after verification by several individuals and groups since science
tries to find the “truth that is universally valid, subject to the
knowledge available in a particular era. It knows that more refined truth
can be discovered in future as new knowledge accumulates. Thus, what is
considered to be “true” in a given era, becomes “partial truth”
in a future epoch. Thus, Newton's laws in mechanics were considered to be true
for about two hundred years until, its limits of validity were found in the
late nineteenth century.
Does it then mean that science had been erroneously assigning a
false validity to Newtonian understanding, for two hundred years? No, that is
not true. Whatever Newton had assigned
are still found to be correct, but only when objects move with velocities (v)
that are much less than the velocity of light (c) , or when motions take
place in regions larger than atomic dimensions (a typical atomic dimension is
10 billionth of a centimetre). Such physical systems could not be conceived of
in Newton's times. Neither atoms were known nor was the value of speed of
light, though Galileo had contemplated that speed of light was finite and could
be measured by astronomical observations.
With the advent of industrial revolution, in late eighteenth and
early nineteenth century Europe, a new field, till then considered to be “dirty”
appeared in the realm of science, i.e. chemistry and hand in hand arose
two new professions, those of the chemist and of the engineer.
These fields brought instrument-makers, blacksmiths, metal-workers, coal-miners
into the “academia.” They would find means to manufacture dyes for the textile
industry, tools for weaving machines, new kind of iron ploughs for agriculture
and make efficient engines that would give better energy output with lesser
fuel combustion. But while making these they were interested in quantification
too, since without quantification these could not be achieved. These
experiences made the chemist and combustion engineer look deeply into the constitution
of matter itself. What emerged from there was the modern atomic theory of
Dalton (in 1800) - far different, refined and more complete, from what
the ancient Greeks had developed. The atomic theory was able to explain chemical
properties of substances and the physical properties of gases (Boyle's law,
Charles Law, Avogadro hypothesis etc.). In the process, they could establish a
connection between heat and motion of atoms and molecules in substances.
This was a great leap. We had now reached a situation where
immaterial of the object's motion as a whole, its parts (i.e. atoms and
molecules within it) were always moving randomly with respect to each other and
the vigour of this random motion would determine as to how hot the body was!
This was deduced from theory, but new experimental techniques (from Doppler
broadening of spectral lines) proved the theoretical predictions to be correct.
Dalton’s atomic theory was based on the
understanding that the smallest unit of matter is the atom. This view received
a jolt in 1897 with the discovery of the electron as a universal constituent
of matter. So, the supposedly indestructible and indivisible atom, could be
broken into parts: inside the atom, this negatively charged electron would have
to keep the company of a positively charged central core in the atom itself.
For this, it has to revolve round the positively charged core, in Keplerian
orbits, since otherwise the electron would fall into the core due to attraction
of opposite charges and both would vanish!
Since the time when the English physician William Gilbert (in
1600) had discovered electric charge, electricity had occupied the
attention of many a scientist, but now it was to be accommodated in atomic
theories. By the middle of the nineteenth century, the works by Oersted,
Ampere, Faraday, Henry, Maxwell and many others, completed the conceptual
foundation of electricity and magnetism. It was found that electricity and
magnetism were interconnected: moving charges create magnetic effects and moving
magnets would produce electric disturbances. These two always go hand-in-hand
producing electromagnetic waves, that can move even through empty space (sound
cannot) with the speed of light: c=300,000 kms per second (this was found
independently by Foucault and Fizeau in mid nineteenth century, through laboratory experiments). It was
further shown that light is an electromagnetic radiation, whose wavelength (λ and
thus frequency ν, with ν= c/λ) determines the colour of light, but for all
colours the speed in vacuum is the same, i.e. c = 300,000 kms/sec. Not
only that, it has this unique value, no matter whether the speed of light is
measured by an
observer, who moves with any uniform speed in any arbitrary direction. This
dictated that the old ideas of relativity, first given by Galileo, on which the
entire Newtonian mechanics rests had to undergo qualitative change but would continue
to maintain that laws of motion were universal irrespective of uniformly moving
observers. This gave rise to Einstein's special theory of relativity, which
made mass, time and length to be decided by the speed of motion of the
observer. It also showed that mass(m) and energy(E) are related
by a formula, E = mc2, so that they are inter-convertible, as would be seen in nuclear
reactions, to be discovered in the 1920's. This new theory also set a limit to the highest velocity that
matter can have, that limit being c.
But
that was not enough, a question rose: on the basis of electromagnetism, one
must understand as to why heated objects turn red and then blue and finally
white when they are heated more and more. It turned out that this could not be
understood on the basis of nineteenth century science and one had to understand
that radiation always comes out or is absorbed in energy parcels ε=hν=hc/λ. According to Newtonian ideas, energy could be transferred
in any tiny amount, no matter how small. But now, we find that there was a
limit as to how tiny one could make it, for nothing could be smaller than the
energy quantum ε=hν=hc/λ. This quantum
character of energy transfer was found to operate in motion of electrons in
atomic orbits too. According to Newtonian ideas , energy and momentum transfer
could be as tiny as we wish. But discoveries in the atomic world showed that
energy and momenta and sizes of atomic orbits could not be made arbitrary but
had to follow certain quantum conditions, dictated by “h”, which also
made things consistent with the colours of radiation that atoms emit or absorb.
All these predictions from twentieth century revolution in
physics have been verified experimentally and the stage for quantitative
theoretical predictions had been made ready by the nineteenth century
mathematicians. When speeds are much less than the speed of light or orbits
are much bigger than the atomic dimensions, results based on Newtonian science
continue to hold. This can be seen, for example while dealing with situations
like tides in ocean or about structure of galaxies. We must also remember that
the fundamental assumptions of 20th century Physics can be
challenged in the future if and when we discover new phenomenon that it cannot
explain. Science only claims that all the
laws of nature are knowable but does not make predictions as to when or if ever
we will know all of them.
Science and superstitions: Case of Kepler:
It has been said, “There is a tide in the
affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads to fortune” (Julius Caesar, Act
IV, Scene III). This applies to nations and to science too. At the time of the European
renaissance, people took the tide at its flood, breaking the barriers of
a millennium of stagnation. But it was
built up on knowledge, collected and documented over centuries, by people
belonging to different societies and from different times. As Newton said: “If
I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.”
The process has a long history. Most of the time it remains
unknown and unseen as human beings struggle to live on this earth. This
struggle forces us to deal with nature on the one hand and on the other to
evolve the way we relate to fellow human beings as a society. In modern
parlance, the first part is referred to as natural science, encompassing
the living and the non living, while the second deals with social relations and
is called social science.
It was through this process of struggle that early humans came
to know about sunrise and sunset, tides on the seas, seasonal floods and this
knowledge helped them in agriculture, e.g. to decide about the time of sowing.
The calendar was provided by the night sky and the pattern of stars (with our
naked eye, on a clear new moon night, away from the glare of urban lights we
can see about 4000 stars), as they change with the change of seasons. This was
also one of the factors that led to the development of astronomy, being driven
not purely by curiosity but also by the demands of an emerging agricultural
society. Thus, if the stars could predict the seasons on earth that are so
crucial to our life on earth, it was neither illogical nor irrational at that time to ascribe, that our fate
was decided by the stars. It was in this way that astronomy and astrology got
linked to each other and the priestly class, which knew about the movement of
stars got powerful as it was understood that if they knew the happenings in
heaven they would also be in the know of things on earth.
It came to be believed that some astronomical events carry bad
omens., e.g. eclipses, comets and meteors. It was said that “The heavens blaze
forth the death of princes” (Julius Caesar: Act I, Scene II), and in this way
the fortune teller gained importance. In many cases the astrologer and the
astronomer were the same person. The classic case was that of Johannes Kepler,
who used to earn his living by astrology. And much of the money that he earned
was used in defending his mother, who was charged with witchcraft. But when it
came to the discovery of the laws of planetary motion, the same Kepler did not
rely on any of these claimed ‘supernatural’ gifts but purely on analysis of
Tycho Brahe's data. Carl Sagan has thus commented that Kepler was the last
astrologer amongst astronomers.
Scientific progress and inter-relations between societies:
Early science owes its origin in agricultural societies that
flourished in the Nile valley, in Mesopotamia , in ancient India and China.
Their knowledge was transferred to the Greeks, who took a fundamental step of
classification and of building theories based on mental constructs. In this,
fundamental contributions came from the Pythagorean and Aristotelian schools.
The idea of systematizing knowledge on the basis of logical sequence gave us
Euclid's geometry while the Aristotelian school gave the idea of classifying
the living world in terms of similarities between flora and fauna.
This work was done by the nobility, who ruled the slave society
in Greece. Slave labour allowed them the leisure, to think. They discovered
ordered patterns in whatever they saw, from the sky, to flora and fauna and to
the organization of Greek society, between slave owners, slaves, men, women and
prisoners. This exclusively mental process led to mysticism. For example, they
ended up in giving mystical properties to certain numbers and geometrical
figures. These attempts at theorizing, i.e. putting the things in order and
keeping them in their right place had a profound effect. It could help one to
see inter-connections between disconnected things. But it also, in the end, had
a deleterious effect, since this exercise in ancient Greece was divorced from
practice. Thus, discovering order became an obsession and they strove to find
one, even where none would exist. The nobility was disconnected not only from
physical world and physical labour but also from those, on whose physical
labour the nobility lived. A society, nourished by slave labour had very little need for
innovation. The nobility exploited slave labour and got whatever their lives
demanded while the life of the slave was expendable.
Greek science thus soon reached its saturation and decayed into
obscurity. This has also happened with science in ancient India, where the
caste system, based on heredity did not allow innovation. Even after the
collapse of science in ancient India and Greece, their knowledge base was kept
alive by science from Arabia, Persia, Central Asia – often referred to as
Islamic science. They learnt their science from from all sources: astronomy,
mathematics, paper making, use of gunpowder from the Chinese, arithmetic and
algebra, surgery from the India, geometry and anatomy from the Greeks. They
themselves excelled in optics, mathematics, astronomy and chemistry. Whatever
they learnt, they recorded them in their books. It was on this foundation that
Italian renaissance stood and gave Newton the chance to stand on the shoulders
of giants.
Non uniformity of developments
While European renaissance ushered in a revolution in physical
sciences the real revolution in biology had to wait for two hundred and fifty
years, until the publication of Darwin's Origin of Species. There was
every chance that it could have preceded the revolution in physics. Thoughts about
the living world had two aims, firstly in medicine and secondly in flora and
fauna. About six hundred years after Hipocratus (b. 630 BC), experiments
in anatomy were done by Galen (b. 130 AD). He dissected animals, mainly
monkeys. This was a real empirical work but it was followed by a wrong theory.
Galen and his followers advanced a notion that the same anatomical structures
must be found in humans too. This wrong
idea was taken to be inviolable, until Vesalius in 1543 published the famous
treatise on human anatomy (On the Fabric of the Human Body), with
copious and reasonably accurate sketches, based on his real life observations
obtained with dissection of human cadaver. About seventy years later, William
Harvey, a student of the same Padova university, where Vesalius had studied,
proved that our heart is a pumping machine, that circulates blood and heart has
valves that separates impure blood from pure ones while impure blood was purified
by the lungs (On the motion of heart and blood, published in 1628).
Though these were revolutionary results they did not give rise to revolution in
biology, for it looks that biological sciences still lacked a revolutionary
theory partly because it lacked rich empirical data that astronomy had provided
the physicist and also because the works of Vesalius and Harvey satisfied the
immediate needs. Further, diversity and complexity of the biological world
often acted as a barrier for unification, an obstacle that astronomy did not
have.
Things,
however, changed with Darwin when he developed a theory called the theory
of natural selection which was based on evidence. In the next hundred and
fifty years we would not only examine the question of Origin of Species (published
in 1859) but end up investigating the origin of life, from non living
molecules! By the time that Darwin
arrived, microscopy (pioneered by Robert
Hooke, his Micrographia was published in 1665 and he coined the term, cell),
had given enough information about organs and organisms; works by Francesco
Redi(1668) disproved Aristotelian ( 384 BC- 322 BC) theory of
spontaneous generation of life and all these had collectively given biology a
footing, on which it could stand. However, the impetus for a theory came from
what geologists were debating, that everything has its history and so has the
earth and earth's history can be determined. One would then ask: could such a
question be asked for biological species that live on earth, how did they transform
with the earth's transformation? In addition, there was another question: if
the population of humans grow in the way it was, would it be possible to
maintain peace, if humans end up fighting each other to get their share of
earth's resources? How these concerns and Darwin's meticulous observations of
flora fauna and geological formations in different parts of the world led to
the theory of natural selection is an interesting story that should be read
separately.
Science often produces surprises and these lead people to
rethink and revise views and one such example in physics has direct link with
Darwin's work. This relates to Lord Kelvin, a famous physicist of the
nineteenth century. He was a confirmed anti evolutionist. As a physicist, he
was interested in heat conduction and tried to estimate the age of the earth
from Fourier's heat conduction theory. It was known that as we go below the
surface of the earth (data from mines) the temperature rises by 1ºF for every 50 ft. Kelvin assumed that the earth has a hot solid
metallic core, with which it was born and it still exists in the same state in
the earth's core. So its temperature
cannot exceed 8000ºF, the melting point of solid rocks. Kelvin
himself measured the thermal conductivity of earth and then asked the question:
how long did it take for the surface to cool to the present temperature? Then
knowing that the radius of the earth was 6371 kms (first found extremely
accurately by Erastothenes, 276 BC- 194 BC, and later by Al Biruni, 973 AD- 1048
AD) on the basis of Fourier's theory of heat conduction, Kelvin, in 1862, i.e.
three years after the publication of Origin of Species, calculated that
the earth must have been cooling since hundred million years and this is the
minimum age that he could get. It was much less than what evolutionists were
claiming but much larger than 6500 years that what the Bible claimed. Kelvin was not happy with his finding. But
being a scientist of unimpeachable reputation he had given precedence to his
results, fighting his own dogmatism but later abandoned it when more accurate
estimates came. Modern investigations tell us that the earth is 4 ±0.5 billion
years old, that is more than four thousand times older than predicted by Kelvin.
Then, where was the error in Kelvin's calculations? The error was in the
fundamental assumption. The fact is that earth's temperature gradient is
maintained by energy from radioactive decay of minerals– a fact, not known in
Kelvin's time, (radioactivity was discovered in 1898 by Henri Bequerel, Pierre
and Marie Curie). Knowledge of radioactive decay nowadays helps us in many
historical and archaeological work, through Carbon- 14 dating and has
become a standard tool (William Libby got the Nobel Prize in
Chemistry in 1960, for discovering this method). The technique is
now made extremely accurate so that by looking at the composition of ice at
different depths of icebergs at the poles, and measuring the relative
proportions oxygen isotopes (O-16, O-18), we have succeeded in getting
further confirmation of global warming.
Science and superstition:
Science always sets limits to what it can explain. It does not
follow a prescriptive role. This allows spiritualists to not only downplay the
power of science but also to impose the authority of ‘messiahs' who know
answers to all questions for all times to come: answers, which science has not yet succeeded in
giving.
The point to be noted is that by setting its own boundaries
science also provides some space for speculations on the basis of unverifiable
exercises, e.g. astrology. We know that the universal truth is that all living
beings have to die. That is true, but science cannot tell, who will die when.
But people want to be immortal. “Kim
ashcharyam atapparam (what can be more surprising than this)?”asks
Yudhishthira in the Mahabharata: a completely logical observation. However,
this is not the logic that satisfies most of us. Even those who believe in
another world and in rebirth, do not know as to what is life look like in the ‘other’
world or what would happen in the ‘next’ life here, when they are born again.
It is this uncertainty that makes people seek a better one here, in this life
itself i.e. in “life before death”, irrespective of what happens to “life
after death”. And people tend to seek a guaranteed assurance for
that. Astrology and spiritualism promise these but are based on completely
untestable premises. Needless to say, they give promise but fail to provide the
guarantee.
But there can be an alternative approach -- to understand
worldly events from their worldly causes. Here too there may be different aims,
e.g. (1) to interpret the world or (2) to change it. As PSM activists we need
to do both – to look at every day experience as a way of interpreting the
world, and to look for ways in which we can change what we think needs
changing.